Via The Literary Saloon:

Ladbrokes has opened up betting for the Nobel Prize in Literature, as they do every year, and perennial favorite Murakami Haruki opens with the best odds this year at 10/1, and as of writing this has gone up to 7/1.

What does this mean? Nothing really, because we’re gambling here, and there’s literally no information about who the Academy is even considering at this point. Often, when leaked info comes out right before the announcement is made, the odds for one author changes so rapidly it’s very easy to tell who’s taking the prize.

On the other hand, last year’s winner Tomas Transtromer opened with the second best odds of 9/2, after Adonis’ 4/1, so who knows.

My wild speculation? He won’t win. He probably won’t ever win. The Academy likes political writers, which Murakami certainly touches upon in some of his work, but he’s not the harsh critic that Oe was, and if there was ever a year that attention was on Murakami, it was last year, when 1Q84 came out. It’s possible the academy didn’t get to read it (unless they went with the German edition that came out so far in advance), but also, 1Q84 really wasn’t very good.

Judging by the recent history of past winners, I imagine them trying to honor someone in Asia or the Middle East, because they hardly ever do, and they stayed so close to home last year with Transtromer, a Swede.

But we shall see in earlier October.